Why climate change should not worry you

Climate is always changing, the sea is always rising or falling, and the land is always rising or receding. This is as close as the precise meaning of the phrase, "Nothing new under the sun." So claiming that it is catastrophic or unprecedented change is more like dishonesty than scientific insight. Not to worry. And this is from eleven years ago. And one commenter marveled that the video had not been removed by the climate change disinformation police at YouTube.

Then there is this, an update of sorts, from this weekend's WSJ review of Vaclav Smil's, "How the world works."

One is environmentalism of the kind that promotes what the author argues are “unrealistic” decarbonization goals without a serious appreciation of current global dependence on fossil energy. Arbitrary, long-range targets to be achieved in years that end in “5” or “0” are his bête noire. Fossil energy, he makes clear, remains the hidden basis not just of transportation but also heavy industry, construction and agriculture.

‘How the World Really Works’ Review_ Putting It All Together - WSJ.pdf

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At the same time, Mr. Smil disavows both prediction and prescription, instead aiming to understand how we got here (to a time when half of the world enjoys at least a decent standard of living), because he believes that to be a prerequisite for clear and honest thinking about how to get where we want to go (to a decent standard of living to everyone in a sustainable manner). As poor societies aspire to emulate the growth path of recent successes like China, their middle-class lifestyles will need energy and materials, too. And the sobering reality is that energy and material transitions are hard and expensive. They are even harder when the ultimate goal is not to feed, house and move people efficiently— but both efficiently and cleanly.

Mr. Smil wants his readers to confront certain environmental and economic realities. “It is hard to understand,” he writes, “why modern economics, that body of explanations and precepts whose practitioners exercise more influence on public policy than any other experts, has largely ignored energy.” It says a lot about both political polarization and capacity for wishful thinking that such an independent outlook, hard to pigeonhole, feels rare and refreshing.

*****

Smil's thoughtful, deep science coincides with the primary thesis I offered n]my students for years in their business classes, when talking about prosperity, poverty and sustainability. As the last line of the review notes (below, bolded italics):

... some might accuse “How the World Really Works” of playing down climate change. Mr. Smil the empiricist has a deep-rooted distaste for computer models and for doomsaying. He argues that we will likely have enough food, oxygen and water to subsist, but is that sufficient? As his body of work convincingly reminds us, modern growth is sudden and jarring, and was achieved by the unprecedented mobilization of finite resources and the consequent demands on the planet’s physical, chemical and biological systems.