The Ukraine: From 1938 to 2022

January 2022. With my short, technical specialist Fulbright visit to Khmelnytskyi in 2004, I will claim above-average understanding of the history, people and politics of that country, starting with its horrific battleground status under Stalin's and Hitler's armies in the Second World war to its tension-filled status today attributed to another dictator, Vladimir Putin.

My 'nutshell' description of the Ukraine is that it has long been a crossroads for warring factions from outside the country and today remains divided in its language and loyalties, with the western regions generally looking to Poland and the West and the eastern regions speaking Russian and looking in that direction for their loyalties. There are plenty of very bad memories of World War II, as well as some good to bad memories of the Ukraine's time as a 'member' of the USSR. Suffice it to say, the Ukraine's geographic location and fertile plains (good for agriculture yet also ideal for warfare -- "good tank country" is a phrase the remains in my head) make it a desired asset in any political sphere.

The recent tensions have done a good job of showing the vulnerability of the United States -- especially after the recent Afghanistan debacle -- and the self-emasculation of American foreign policy credibility under the Biden administration, where President Biden is both loved and loathed for his prior actions in Ukraine under the Obama administration, including his $1 billion blackmail of the Ukraine judicial system during his time as vice president.

Biden has compounded his foolishness with his drastic cuts in American fossil fuel capacity, surrendering America's leading role in energy production to others and making a key ally --western European NATO allies -- much more dependent on Russia for their energy supplies. If you think that Biden did a good thing in blackmailing the Ukraine as vice president, wait and see how Putin can bring our NATO allies if not to their knees, at least to their own emasculated position when dealing with Russian demands. First America cut off oil supply potential to western Europe and now Russia is well-positioned to do the same.

American stock markets have declined between 6% and 15% this month (January 2022). While part of this decline can be attributed to the declining economics and earnings prospects for 2022, after a record economy in Covid-drenched 2021, the economic uncertainty has been multiplied by the threat of a Russian invasion of the Ukraine and the expected, extensive repercussions to such a move, including military action and economic sanctions by the United States accompanied by a neutral Europe. With the recent Netflix film, "Munich: World on edge," showing fictionalized elements of the historic Munich appeasement in 1938, it is easy to see parallels in our potential position on Russia and the Ukraine, only instead of the British Empire that blinked and surrendered the Sudetenland, this time it would be the decaying American "empire" doing the blinking.