April 27, 2020: The more I learn (about Covid), the less I know

This six-week pandemic lockdown has been a cornucopia of comments, thoughts, advice, predictions and projections, raw and incomplete data, forwarded emails, punditry, political and personal bias, really bad sampling and statistical analysis, and just about any type of input that could be designed to baffle, befuddle and -- even sometimes -- bemuse.

It seems the more I "learn" about what is going on, the less I know, and the less that even the smartest and most thorough scientists know. Did Covid come from a bat? a lab? a planned attack? Is it easily transmitted? or difficult to transmit with only the modest precautions? Do those 'modest' precautions include hand washing? how often is 'frequent' when it comes to hand washing? If you don't leave the house do you have to wash hands as 'frequently'? Can I touch my face? If not, can I brush my teeth, take a shower and wash my face, or apply sunscreen when I walk at mid-day?

What type of mask works? What do I mean by 'works'? Work for the person wearing the mask or those on the other end? Is a home-produced mask effective? Again, for whom?

Touching surfaces. How much of a 'touch' of a surface is enough to transmit the virus? Does the surface have to have a good-sized glob of the virus, or might a tiny, tiny spot allow a transmission? And what constitutes a 'good-sized glob' or a 'tiny, tiny spot' anyway?

Pre-existing poor health conditions. Does having a malady like diabetes, cancer, high blood pressure or a weakened immune system just facilitate the devastation of the virus, or does the virus accelerate the pre-existing chronic condition?

Mortality rates. Even if we can decide accurately that the Covid virus is the true cause of death, how do we know how many people have the virus? Using only those who have tested positive is an absurd way to set the denominator. Using only those hospitalized is just as silly, especially if only those people become part of the 'recovered' count? How can you establish that you have recovered if you never had a test and had no symptoms? Does an antibody test tell you something? Does it establish immunity?

Has the lockdown been effective? In the absence of valid statistical comparisons between lockdown and non-lockdown countries or regions, can we ever judge the effectiveness of the lockdowns. Are there valid comparisons? Can we compare most countries to small, homogeneous countries like Sweden or Iceland, who had minor or no lockdowns?

The 'flu'. Where are comparable data on the annual, 'regular' flu in the United States, measure the same way we measure Covid? That means measuring and reporting not just deaths, but also positive tests, number of hospitalizations, mortality rates by demographics, and a reasonable estimate of the actual number of people who contracted the flu and either did not know they had it or did not get tested. Some 'scientists' claim that Covid is wholly unlike the seasonal flu; others, including doctors, are not so sure. Absent data -- both current and historical -- how can anyone claim a similarity or difference with real confidence?

Assumptions versus data. The models all all seem to include some assumptions about such things as transmission rates, but rarely do they have a hypothesis to test the accuracy of the model. The data antlers have problems with getting clean, unbiased, accurate data, so assumptions about ranges of data need to be made.

The human cost of the lockdown. While 'stay at home' rules may have helped to flatten the curve -- even that is debatable -- the real damage is the human economic effects of a prolonged lockdown, especially for those living in poorer countries with little or no tangible wealth to carry them through this time of economic inactivity. With wealth being consumed rather than created, to paraphrase Margaret Thatcher, sooner or later you will run out of wealth to consume.

Vaccines and treatments. There is no vaccine to protect you from catching the virus and -- so far -- no clear treatment for those with the worst cases of Covid. Some attempted treatments are untested and/or controversial, some have significant side effects, some seem to trigger an overreaction from one's immune system, causing a person's own system to attack that person.

Four weeks ago I was in a pretty dark place as to the prospects. Then for most of the past four weeks my sentiments have fluctuated widely and often. Today seems to be an up day, and one more sustainable than some of the previous batches of good news.