More good news about the bad news on U.S. mortality

March 23, 2021. More elderly, obese and ill Americans means higher mortality rates. Among Covid deaths, how many of those who died were not already old, obese or (seriously) ill? Maybe 6 percent.

The United Nations estimate of mortality in the United States to be increasing steadily for the past eight years. To be clear, each year deaths increase in the United States due to several key reasons: (1) an increase in the over 65 population, from 40 million to 55 million, in the last ten years, as the Boomers age; (2) the US population has increased by almost 30 million people this century. Using the UN estimate, we would expect 0.9% of 330 million Americans to have died in 2020, almost three million people, and that was without Covid in the equation. Face it, we have tens of millions of elderly, obese and chronically ill people near death.

The United States of America crude death rate in 2020 was lower (8.9 per thousand, right image, below) than the United Nations pre-2020 projections for last year (9.0 per thousand, U.S. death rate, 1950-2021, above). There has been a strong, persistent increase in the mortality rate for adult males (Mortality rate, adult, male; below left). The center table provides broader, historic data on U.S. demographics.

As shown previously here and here, overall mortality rates in the United States are on a climb, perhaps better described as a 'surge' or 'spike' in the rate, yet it can easily be explained by the rapidly increasing number of obese, chronically ill, elder Americans in the population, and not by Covid. If anything, Covid accompanied a number of other longstanding causes of death, including natural causes (from old age), obesity, diabetes, dementia, and chronic lung disease.

United States Mortality Rates.docx

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