More claims, more confusion about Covid

After watching this video, and reflecting on its content earlier, here, along with numerous earlier posts and reflections, like this one, my head is perhaps more scrambled than ever. A good use of, "The more I learn, the less I know (to be true)." If you dare, Google "deaths in 2020" and take your pick of competing claims (see graphic).

The claims as to the direct, deadly impact of Covid-19, in the United States and around the world, continue to baffle, not just me. Let's start and primarily stay with the United States and, for the lost part, focus primarily on deaths related to Covid. The preceding four words alone can generate several books, a few dozen doctoral theses, and scores of articles in JAMA and other medical journals. So the first problem is understanding the subjectivity of assigning death as caused by Covid, rather than death accompanied by Covid or even death APPARENTLY caused or accompanied by Covid. As Dr. Lee points out, Covid-19 is impossible to diagnose; a medical professional can only learn of its presence in a person by testing. Even then, the 'presence' of Covid genetic material can actually be evidence of an immunity to Covid, based on a previous infection that produced a sufficient immunological reaction to deter and effectively 'kill' the virus, yet leaving remnants of the virus for an overly sensitivity 'Covid test' such as the widely used, misinterpreted, and misunderstood PCR test which while, with extreme diligence applied by the lab, can detect minute, even inert evidence in a person's system. Bottom line: Take claims of Covid-19 death counts with a huge grain of salt.

Second, even assuming the highest possible number of deaths attributed to Covid-19, we need to put those numbers in perspective, over both the short and long term. Covid-19 is unlike other seasonal viruses in its having two seasons in the same year, and followed by several years of lower than usual viral and lung-related deaths, e.g., influenza, while also hitting at a peak in the number of Americans over the age of 65 as well as their numbers in an "assisted living" facility, often referred to cynically as "God's waiting room." This means that "excess deaths" are exaggerated in 2020, will probably result in "below excess deaths" in 2022, if not in 2021, and will likely lead to a revision in the idea of 'baseline deaths,' meaning those deaths that were expected, or expected mortality rate. The difference between expected and actual deaths produces the "excess deaths" count.

That introduces a third point of confusion, and that is, how many deaths were expected in 2020 BEFORE there was any hint or expectation of Covid, meaning "As of December 2019, how many Americans were expected to die in 2020?" The answer would be that 'baseline deaths' count, but how do you project 2020 deaths? What I typically see used by the press is either a trailing five-year average or simply the actual death figures from 2019. Neither of these numbers are an appropriate estimate. Why? Well, American mortality has been increasing steadily over the past ten years. For a site like usafacts.org to state, "From 1980 to 2019, between eight and nine people per 1,000 have died each year in the United States," implies the absence of a trend, even when followed by this claim, "In 2019, the most recent year with official death estimates, 2,854,838 Americans died, and 3,747,540 were born. That means that 8.7 people died per 1,000 that year — up from a low of 7.9 deaths per 1,000 people in 2009." What these 'facts' hide are two other critical facts: Mortality increases over the past ten years means that a trailing five-year average count is significantly lower than a realistic baseline count. And the American population is growing each year, especially the elderly population. While 2019 mortality was 8.7 per thousand, the best estimate of for 2020 would be about 9 per thousand. With an aging, growing American population of more than 330 million, the baseline/expected deaths for 2020 was closer to 3 million. Using 2019 actual deaths as a pseudo or surrogate estimate for calculating excess deaths in 2020 is foolish if not downright dishonest.

And that leads to a fourth point. Even with a more realistic, defensible baseline death count for 2020, it is difficult to accept having the CDC not only established biased, subjective ways of counting -- and inflating -- the number of deaths due to Covid, it is even more difficult when they get to be the scorekeeper. Estimates even in late 2020 were for about 3.1 million deaths in the United States in 2020, probably within the standard error of estimate for the pre-2020 mortality expectations. Yet by April 2021, revisions have shown an increase at one point of 3.3 million and now 3.5 million, according to the CDC! Face it, even were this last estimate -- again, it is still an estimate, with many likely 2021 deaths "pulled forward" by Covid -- with 2020 Covid-19 deaths estimated (by the CDC) to be 350,000, that means that about one percent of Americans died in 2020, with about ten percent of that one percent dying with/from Covid. It is reasonable to believe that within those 350,000 'Covid' deaths are numerous deaths accelerated by Covid but probably due more to pre-existing co-morbidities, such as age, obesity, lung disease, heart problems, diabetes and dementia, as well as deaths that had been effectively 'postponed' by a mild preceding flue season.

Finally, can't people see the meaning of a 'pandemic' that primarily impacts people who have lived beyond their life expectancy, especially as tens of millions of people move into this age group, the people living well beyond their expected years. Seriously consider what the 'pandemic' is telling us about life, health and medicine, not what the politicians are telling us.

Lessons learned? Data matter, facts over feelings. Means, forecasts and most statistical estimates are useless without knowing the standard error. Exaggerated forecasts of doom are common; there must be accountability for predictions, especially for those that fail. There is a strong case AGAINST credentialism as a basis for claiming credibility. Distrust political authority, especially when their positions best serve their self-interest while claiming it is the public's interest. Don't use the term, "public servant," and avoid those who self-attache such a term to their role. Promises are important, but not as important as the actual results of those promises.

My conclusion? Per Mark Twain, "Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated." Covid-19 has displaced climate change as the leading cudgel in the mainstream narrative, but 'climate change' histrionics are not going away. Subsequent generations must first survive this political, non-scientific rhetoric and nonsense and, more important, reverse and reject this madness.