Lockdown efficacy

January 4, 2021. Is there any good reason to lockdown a country? Not likely.

Two months ago I wrote and posted (most of this) this. It is worth remembering, with some updated, expanded text. What exactly constitutes a 'lockdown'? As practices in the United States in various forms and at various levels, lockdowns don’t work for many reasons, one of which is that there is no way to effectively define, operationalize and police any 'lockdown' and, specifically:

• Some activities can’t be locked down.

• Some activities that need to be locked down don’t get locked down.

• The choice as to what gets lock downed (e.g., churches) and what does not get locked down (e.g., bait shops, liquor stores) is more about political power and bias than medical expertise or best practices.

• People don’t follow the lockdown demands for many reasons, from personal liberty, to lack of knowledge or lack of understanding of the rules, to pressing personal needs that warrant self-justification or rationalization to violate the conditions. I.e., some activities should not be locked down in any case.

• The experts and political leaders don’t feel obligated to follow their own lockdown admonitions – the lockdown is for the other guy.

• Lockdowns disproportionately hit the poor and marginalized. Lockdowns help the rich and hurt the poor. Under lockdowns, the rich (and the politicians, elites and mainstream media) increase their financial wealth while those with low incomes often lose their jobs, their incomes and what little -- if any -- wealth they have.

• When a lockdown ends transmission is free to continue. In Wisconsin, the message from the leaders as alternated between efforts to SLOW the spread and to END the spread. Lockdowns only defer the spread. That was what the supposed first two-week lockdown in March 2020 was supposed to do. While it did stop the horrific mortality and ICU bed use projections from overwhelming the morgues and hospitals, it did not stop the spread. In fact, it probably produced a deferred acceleration of the spread by last summer, early fall.

• Sweden has handled Covid with no lockdown, much better than the experts predicted would happen with no lockdown, and much better economically, emotionally, and socially. Sweden's deaths are also an unusual product of their elderly and migrant populations, as well as the propensity of the Swedes to travel globally.