Expected versus actual (Covid) deaths

August 31, 2020. Is Covid-19 having an impact on overall death/mortality rates in the United States? Maybe. And maybe not. Let's look at the recent CDC data.

Let's first look at deaths in New York City over the past three years, both predicted (as expressed by the blue vertical bars) and 'excess deaths,' as indicated by the orange horizontal line and the '+' symbol indicating deaths in excess of the predicted. Obviously, April 2020 was a deadly month for New York City.

Next, compare this with Wisconsin. Note the generally wider gap between the top of the bars and the orange line, meaning deaths were running well below the excess deaths threshold. In spring and summer 2020, when there are 'excess' deaths, the gap remained relatively small and was 'in excess' for eight weeks, as compared to wider gaps and thirteen weeks of 'excess deaths' in New York City.

Now consider the entire United States. There is a large Coin-related 'bump' this spring and summer, a smaller 'bump in January 2018, plus an even smaller bump in the first week of January 2017. Assume that those last two smaller bumps were the result of seasonal flu. And notice that there is a very small bump in the blue vertical bars in January 2019, 'covered' by a larger bump in the orange threshold line. There was also a small bump showing in January 2020 but it was overshadowed by the spring Covid-19 bump.

One last perspective. Here is a graph of deaths in the United States over the past twenty years. In an earlier post, I noted that the total number of deaths in the United States had been rising sharply since 2009 at a rate of about 50,000 additional deaths each year. The three preceding charts show nothing that suggests this increase in deaths which, most likely, are the product of the Boomer demographic bump. Basically, the post-war boom in berths is showing up now as deaths. But again, the modeled or predicted numbers as indicated by the blue bars don't show this increase. So I am a bit skeptical.

This also returns us to the ongoing mystery as to what exactly defines a 'Covid-19 death.' If government officials are inflating the count, by tying any death with Covid-related symptoms as a Covid death, these numbers are likely inflated. Add in an overlay of nursing home deaths from Covid versus rational nursing home mortalities, and it clearly looks more like Covid-related deaths than Covid-caused deaths.

According to The New York Times, potentially 90 percent of those who have tested positive for COVID-19 have such insignificant amounts of the virus present in their bodies that such individuals do not need to isolate nor are they candidates for contact tracing.

My impression -- and you are welcome to form your own impressions -- is that the economic loss and the lingering effects of depressions, job loss, and other mental health problems on the death rate over the next 12-18 months will eventually be recognized as more impactful and negative than the additional 'Covid' deaths.