Easter 2020

Deep in my heart I want to believe that Easter is part of the resurrection of economic life in America, with a peak of deaths, cases, and hospital demand. Following the rosary, stations of the cross and daily Mass with Hank Hilton has been most reaffirming. Even the darkness of Good Friday service, and the vigil (I watched it this morning) were more sources of hope than despair. Part of me -- it is my well-honed cynicism -- says 'no,' we are not there yet.

The numbers are so terribly confused and confusing. Is it death due to coronavirus, or is it coronavirus part of the case of death? Even with the most liberal use of assigning death solely to the coronavirus, US coronavirus deaths to date are less than a third of the 'normal' seasonal flu deaths through March, about 18,000 versus 63,000 'common' flu deaths. The current, popular (or at least oft-cited) projections predicts about 60,000 US coronavirus-related deaths, but that model also assumes continuing social distancing and lockdown, some of which have been ramping up even tighter this past week. And the must-trillion dollar question remains this: "Can we thwart the coronavirus without also killing the economy?" Or at least pushing the economy into a deep, prolonged recession, with excessive bankruptcies, colleges closing, and unemployment?

A few reports have blamed the federal government for providing relatively unlimited resources to the hospitals for treating coronavirus patients, meaning $13,000 and $39,000 for hospitalizing a case and assigning the patient to a ventilator, respectively. The NYC medical director and other key officials are urging doctors to assign coronavirus as THE cause of death, even if there are other factors involved, e.g., cancer, pulmonary problems, respiratory disease, old age. It really clouds the data. What is really going on? A German medical doctor has speculated that chronic lung problems due to heavy air pollution in places like Wuhan, northern Italy and even NYC can be the the real root cause, as the coronavirus seems particularly lethal to people with lung problems and, at times, the accompanying reduction in immunological health. And another report suggested that a 'perfect storm's virus-fighting antibodies in the body's immune system might be so strong as to actually harm/attack the host, causing death from one's one hyperactive immune system.

This is not in any way intended to downplay the dangers. Rather, it is my naturally curious and critical mind trying to make sense of conflicting claims, predictions, and data. And there are the possibly false hopes of more tests, more protective equipment, more ventilators and respirators, better treatments, antibody tests, and a vaccine that can provide some optimism. Yet the predictions and forecasts fro these remedies are usually more in the distant future the more powerful the predicted remedy. Some have suggested the lockdown might last 12-18 months, or that an early return to 'normalcy' would only flare up even more cases, more difficult to manage. It appears to me that a relatively stable, ongoing number of coronavirus cases, hospitalizations, and deaths might become the new normal for 18 months, even without the lockdown, which would at least give some hope to those being strangled by the economic collapse in some industries, like airlines, hotels, restaurants, colleges, live entertainment and professional sports.

The last point -- professional sports -- continues to perplex me and any analysis I've seen. At what point will people and the regulators be willing allow large numbers of people to gather in areas and stadiums to watch professional sports?

For now, I attend Mass every morning from the comfort of my couch, often preceded by reciting the rosary. I close with the five steps of the Jesuit examen. In addition, I have become more charitable for all sorts of causes and I have vowed to make a significant impact on Holy Spirit parish once I can do that safely for them, not just for me. We have all the creature comforts of home -- a nice bed, a hot shower, plenty of food and personal supplies, religious services online, a strong wifi signal, unlimited data on our phones, numerous streaming services, convenient (and for now, seemingly very safe) groceries, drive-thru options at fast food places, restaurant pick ups and deliveries (if needed), great routes for walking and running from home, lots of hot and cold water, a workhouse laundry and dishwasher combination and -- most important -- family close by....