Dying with, not from, Covid

For the first time since the start of the pandemic, the number of people dying in the U.K. with a recent positive Covid-19 test is significantly overstating the true death toll from the virus, according to new data.

In recent weeks, a commonly watched measure of Covid-19 mortality—deaths within 28 days of a positive test—has been around 30% higher than the number of registered deaths involving Covid-19 and nearly 75% higher than the number of registered deaths where Covid-19 was named as the main cause.

That gap contrasts with most of the pandemic, when those two metrics tracked one another closely—at least after the first wave, when a lack of testing capacity meant that the death certificate figures significantly exceeded deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

In U.K.’s Omicron Wave, Many People Are Dying With Covid-19, Not From It - WSJ.pdf

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The pandemic has exacted an enormous death toll in the U.K. and around the world. But the latest figures offer hope that now more people in the U.K. are dying with Covid-19, not because of it. Whether that will translate to other countries, such as the U.S., remains to be seen.

The U.S. hasn’t shown a significant divergence between front-line mortality data and the death certificate counts that accrue more slowly, but eventually provide what the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says is the most accurate tally. The two systems seem to track closely so far, according to Robert Anderson, chief of the mortality statistics branch at the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics.

The agency has counted close to 900,000 Covid-19 deaths via death certificates, at least 90% of which record Covid-19 as the underlying cause. The remaining deaths list it as a contributing cause, according to the CDC. Epidemiologists believe this U.S. count likely misses many Covid-19 deaths, especially from early 2020, when tests were in short supply.

The U.K. data provide another indication of how the Omicron variant—more transmissible but often less serious than its predecessors—is changing the shape of the pandemic. With hospitalizations and deaths falling, the U.K. government said this week it will lift all remaining Covid-19 restrictions in England on Feb. 24, including the legal requirement to isolate for five days after testing positive, if the downward trends continue.

Although case numbers reached record highs last month, hospitalizations and deaths have been well below the levels during the winter peak a year ago. High infection numbers mean many people dying from other causes happen to also have the virus.

Such gobbledegook. The question of "with" versus "from" remains a subjective estimate, with or without a (reliable, valid, current) test. This is probably just the beginning of an effort to revise the data to make the bureaucrats look more successful, all done in the face of two years of criticism and recent protests over the tactics and measures of the politicians in their attempts to "fight" Covid. The Biden administration is now trying to take credit for "solving" Omicron, after recording hundreds of thousands of deaths on their watch, after coming into office claiming that deaths under Trump made him "unfit to hold office" and promising a hundred days to conquer Covid. Such nonsense. Such brash unapologetics. Hard to believe a word that comes from the mouth of the CDC, Fauci or Biden. These are all tactics to try to win back voters disgusted with their treatment by the arrogant, tyrannical elite, while those same elite thumb their noses at the very mandates and edicts they issue for "the little people."