What causes death with Covid?

March 10, 2021. What causes death with Covid?

Articles in the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times concluded that a recent decline in nursing home Covid deaths was evidence if not proof that the vaccine is making a difference. I could not help but offer a simpler explanation: Covid is running out of elderly, sick, nursing home people to infect.

Then I heard a report that the Times also ran a recent piece, speculating as to why some countries have very low Covid death rates while others have very high rates. Low rates in Africa and Asia, higher rates in western Europe and the Americas. The United States had the highest rate, along with Great Britain, while Thailand and Vietnam were near the bottom. I think Vietnam had not a single death.

Setting aside for a moment gross disparities in how medical directors classify deaths, even if the WHO could insist that the criteria are clear and objective, the simple accumulation of reports over the past twelve months had led me to try to do a direct, statistical analysis to search for possible causes, rather than to speculate or listen to so-called scientists and experts.

Hearing the Times' confusion, I stumbled across a response to same from Michael Savage, the epidemiologist and podcaster, who offered his own analysis. He concluded that age, body mass index (BMI) and race were the primary drivers of Covid deaths, and that while race was the label he used for the third cause, he made it clear that 'race' also tended to capture differences in co-morbidity lifestyles and afflictions, like obesity and diabetes, which are also related to BMI.

My search for a cause of Covid deaths in the United States led me to look further, to measures such as population density, median age, the level of urbanization, the Alzheimer death rate, tax burden, nursing home populations and the percent of the population over the age of 65, all by state. Data were available online, much of it from Statista. I have attached the Word file where I compiled the data, along with their source links, below.

Using Covid deaths per million (by state) as the dependent variable, I regressed on all of the aforementioned factors after running a few simple correlations. After reviewing the raw regression, I used my judgment to reduce the independent variables to the most influential candidates. Using the three most explanatory variables produced a multiple-R of 0.66, an R-square of 43.7%, and an adjusted R-square of 40%. For details, see Sheet 7 of the attached Excel file. But before you do, test yourself. Can you name those three most powerful explanations? Before you look at the tables or read on, at least guess. [Sound of clock ticking down.]

Covid Regression data 10 March 2021.docx

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Covid Regression Tables 10 March 2021.xl

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The three most powerful explanatory variables were as follows: Median age, Body Mass Index and population density. These three also tended to better capture other causes of death, namely race, urbanization and percent of population over the age of 65.

Feel free to collect your own data, to run your own analyses, and to draw your own conclusions. I think you'll conclude that Covid is fatal most often to the least capable of fending off the virus, due to age, obesity, and the population density of urbanization. These also tend to go hand in hand with the medical co-morbidities we see cited so often: Alzheimers. diabetes, chronic lung disease, influenza, and other stresses that seriously compromise a person's immune system and his or her ability to fend off the virus.

It also fits well with basic preventive measures: wash your hands often, avoid prolonged, close physical contact, stay home if you're sick, cover your sneeze, clean the surfaces you touch often, eat right, exercise, get proper rest and sleep.

A final note on that last word, sleep. Savage interviewed Dr. Kristen Willeumier (good ahead, Google her), a UCLA Ph.D. sleep expert with a book, Biohack your brain, that explores the benefits of good 'brain health,' including not only appreciating sleep, but also finding ways to get better sleep despite the great anxiety caused by the dire fear generated by our progressive politicians and poseur experts. Sleep well tonight for a better life tomorrow.